2026-07-23 — Thread opened; the full Q2 picture lands

• Opened — split out of ai-circular-financing-risk so Google’s capex trajectory has its own thread rather than one line inside the broader circular-financing story. ⟨steer 2026-07-23⟩
• Full Q2 detail, finalize sweep: revenue $119.8B (+24% YoY, beat), Google Cloud +82% to $24.8B with a $514B backlog — but stock fell over 6% (not the ~5% first-read) and 2027 capex flagged to “increase significantly.” Also disclosed: Google is testing Gemini 3.5 Pro and has begun pretraining Gemini 4. (CNBC) ⟨daily 2026-07-23⟩
• GOOGL still soft in premarket — continuation of 07-22’s after-hours reaction, not new news. (Tickmill) ⟨daily 2026-07-23⟩

← Backstory (crawl 2026-07-27 → artifacts/findings/google-capex-2026-07-27.md)

2026-07-22 — The raise

• Alphabet raised 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B (from $180-190B), with more flagged for 2027 — revenue beat ($119.8B, +24% YoY) and Cloud surged 82% to $24.8B, but GOOGL fell ~5% after-hours anyway: the market read accelerating spend as a warning, not confirmation. (CNBC) ⟨steer 2026-07-23, evidence dated 2026-07-22⟩

2026-07-20 — The question gets a date

• Alphabet/Tesla/Intel earnings framed as the first real test of whether AI revenue justifies Big Tech’s collective $725B 2026 capex plan (Alphabet reports 07-22). (Tech Times) ⟨steer 2026-07-23, evidence dated 2026-07-20⟩
• A specialist-press counter to the nuclear/SMR framing: “Data centers powered by next-gen nuclear? Don’t fall for Big Tech’s PR hype” — argues SMR timelines (2030+) lag current AI power demand by years, a useful skeptical read against the Kairos/TVA deal below. (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2026-07-08 — Wyoming named as a Google site

• Google confirmed as the owner behind what local reporting calls Wyoming’s largest data center project — capacity not independently confirmed; a separate report has Crusoe exiting an adjacent 1.8GW Wyoming project “after Google pressure.” (Cowboy State Daily) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2026-06-22 — Virginia’s $9B trio

• Google’s $9B bet on a trio of Chesterfield County, Virginia data center campuses, layered on top of a separately announced Botetourt County campus (2026-04-03). (VPM) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2026-06-15 — Alabama expansion

• Google adding $1.5B to expand its TVA-powered Jackson County, Alabama campus — corroborated by 5+ outlets same day. (AL.com) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2026-06-04 — The Texas Panhandle mega-complex

• Google + Intersect Power launched a “1GW-plus” co-located data center and power generation complex in Gray County, TX — the clearest example yet of Google building generation and compute together rather than just buying power separately. (POWER Magazine) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2026-05-20 — Missouri’s $15B

• Google’s $15B data center in New Florence, Missouri, called the “largest single investment in state history” — announced via Google’s own blog and corroborated by 9+ outlets. (blog.google) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2026-04-28 — India’s gigawatt-scale AI Hub breaks ground

• Groundbreaking on Google’s $15B “AI Hub” in Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, one outlet putting capacity at 5GW and saying it would “nearly double India’s total data centre capacity”; Adani Group reported as a potential $5B co-investor. (ETEnterpriseai) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2026-04-06 — Anthropic doubles down on TPU capacity

• Anthropic expanded its Google partnership to “multiple gigawatts of next-generation compute,” a three-way structure with Broadcom — confirmed via Anthropic’s own release and 6+ outlets, the clearest external-customer signal of Google’s TPU volume commitments. (Anthropic) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2026-03-18 — Michigan’s “Project Cannoli”

• Google confirmed a 1GW data center campus near Detroit, Michigan (“Project Cannoli”); a DTE utility deal and substation approval followed within months, alongside wetlands-impact pushback. (Data Center Dynamics) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2026-02-18 — Geothermal: Ormat, Nevada

• Google + Ormat sign a deal for up to 150MW of geothermal power in Nevada via NV Energy’s Clean Transition Tariff, commercial operations targeted 2028-2030. (No Fervo Energy deal found — Ormat is the recurring Google geothermal counterparty.) (ESG Today) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2026-02-09 — Solar at gigawatt scale: TotalEnergies, Texas

• TotalEnergies’ largest-ever US renewable PPA: 1GW solar in Texas, 15-year term, ~28TWh total delivery — the single largest signed solar PPA found in this crawl. (ESG Today) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2025-12-22 — Buying the developer: Intersect Power

• Google to acquire data-center-and-energy developer Intersect Power for $4.75B, gaining “several gigawatts” of energy assets — this is the deal that produced the Texas Panhandle complex (2026-06-04 above). (Data Center Dynamics) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2025-12-09 — NextEra: at least three gigawatt-scale campuses

• Google + NextEra Energy partner to develop “at least three gigawatt-scale data center campuses” — confirmed via Reuters, NextEra’s own release, and 6+ outlets total. (Data Center Dynamics) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2025-11-06 — The chip: TPU v7 “Ironwood” ships

• Google rolled out TPU v7 “Ironwood,” its current-generation AI chip, explicitly positioned against Nvidia’s GB300/Blackwell — 4 independent outlets converge on launch date and framing. Co-designed with Broadcom, with MediaTek and TSMC as fab/design partners. (CNBC) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2025-10-24 — The clearest TPU volume signal: Anthropic

• Anthropic gains access to up to 1 million Google TPUs, expecting “over 1GW of processing power” in 2026, a deal reported worth “tens of billions of dollars” — the largest single disclosed external TPU commitment found in this crawl (later expanded 2026-04-06 above). (Data Center Dynamics) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩

2025-08-18 — Power comes online: the first US utility PPA for Gen-IV nuclear

• TVA + Google + Kairos Power sign the first US utility PPA for Gen-IV nuclear, targeting a Tennessee reactor for 2030 (~50MW per Data Center Dynamics, sited across Tennessee/Alabama) — corroborated by 5 outlets including Reuters. The origin point of Google’s now-broader nuclear/SMR bet (Kairos framework dates to 2024-10-15). (Reuters) ⟨crawl 2026-07-27⟩