The custom-silicon revolt (TPU/Trainium/Maia/MTIA) — real but INFERENCE- only, anchored by Anthropic running mostly off Nvidia on Trainium + TPU. Nvidia's absolute demand still grows; the clearest winners are the co- design houses (Broadcom, Marvell). Watch whether displacement reaches frontier training.
Summary
The custom-silicon revolt against Nvidia is real but confined to inference so far, with Anthropic still running mostly on Nvidia via Trainium and TPU.
Whether custom silicon ever displaces Nvidia in frontier-model training, not just inference, is the open question.
Broadcom’s September 2 earnings call confirmed OpenAI as a named fourth AI-chip customer, alongside $10B in AI-chip orders and confirmation that the Jalapeño chip (already benchmarked at Hot Chips, 08-25 entry above) shipped this quarter, on track for a 1.3GW deployment. Caught on this thread’s cold-rotation pass, 15 days after the earnings call itself — a lag worth noting given how central Jalapeño’s production timeline is to this thread’s thesis. (Broadcom Q3 FY2026 earnings call, 2026-09-02)
Qualcomm and Amazon announced a multi-generation collaboration on custom AI-inference silicon and optical interconnects for AWS data centers, with Qualcomm also issuing Amazon warrants for $4B of Qualcomm stock and AWS committing to purchase up to $60B of Qualcomm chips and technology over the deal’s life. This is a new fork in the thread’s thesis: rather than one hyperscaler-designed chip line per company, Amazon is now running Trainium in-house and buying custom AWS-specific silicon from a merchant vendor (Qualcomm, diversifying beyond its smartphone base) — a hybrid pattern this thread hasn’t tracked before, distinct from Broadcom/Marvell’s co-design-house role. Qualcomm’s own release names the technology (custom inference silicon, SerDes/optical DSP, 1.6T+ interconnects) but discloses no dollar figures; the $4B warrant and $60B purchase-commitment figures come from Qualcomm’s SEC-linked disclosure as reported by CNBC and Bloomberg. (Qualcomm/PR Newswire, CNBC)