2026-07-26 — The stake, marked to market: $8.9B → $36-42B

• The government’s Intel stake is now worth $36-42B, up from the $8.9B paid — cited alongside a wider, uncoordinated federal equity portfolio: ~$26.7B across ~30 equity/quasi-equity deals scattered across Commerce (17), Defense (7), DFC (6), and Energy (2), with no centralized oversight (no TARP-style inspector general or GAO audit equivalent). Directly answers this thread’s “does the state stake change behavior” watch: so far, no — it’s accumulating with no visible governance layer. (Fortune) ⟨daily 2026-07-28⟩
• ⚠ Contradiction, unresolved — three figures, one stake: Trump says the position “made about $70 billion in eight or nine months”; a separate Yahoo Finance/Treasury-sourced figure puts unrealized gains at “roughly $47.6 billion” (implying ~$56.5B current value); Fortune/ TheNextWeb/Biggo separately size the whole position at $36-42B. None of the three reconcile with each other on the same $8.9B cost basis. Flagging, not resolving — worth a dedicated crawl if Ben wants the real number. (Yahoo Finance) ⟨daily 2026-07-28⟩

2026-07-23 — Q2 2026: the best quarter in ~15 years

• Revenue $16.13B (+25% YoY, fastest growth in ~15 years), adjusted EPS $0.42 vs $0.21 expected — AI-driven business (Foundry + AI-adjacent products) grew 70%+ YoY and now runs ~70% of revenue; gross margin 41.8%, ~280bp above guidance. Stock fell 2.46% in the regular session to $100.10, then rose 3.44% after-hours as investors digested the beat. 2026 capex guidance raised to $20B+. (TradingKey) ⟨daily 2026-07-28⟩
• This is the first real revenue evidence behind the turnaround thesis this thread tracks (18A/14A execution, foundry customer wins) — thrust was reading ≈0 in the crawl; today’s print is the first print that argues otherwise, pending confirmation the AI-segment growth holds.

← Backstory

Backstory — the stake-value tangle, resolved 2026-07-28

Finding: artifacts/findings/intel-stake-tangle-2026-07-28.md · Bundle: artifacts/bundles/intel-stake-tangle-2026-07-28/provenance.yaml

• The three public figures are one position measured three ways — fixed basis 433.3M sh @ $20.469 = $8.87B: $36B = April price · $42B = July price (Fortune, the best current figure) · ~$56.5B = the May-8 price peak ($129 intraday, Apple-deal day; a Kobeissi Letter number). Trump’s “$70B” gain is unsupported — needs ~$182/sh stock-only (never traded), reachable only by counting the warrant’s 240.5M shares at full spot with the $20 strike and non-exercisability ignored, at pre-selloff prices. ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩
• The filing-accurate number nobody uses: the government holds 290.3M shares today, not 433.3M — 143M still escrowed against future Secure Enclave disbursements (Q2 FY26 10-Q). Literal current value $25-28B, gain ≈ $19-21B. Ownership diluted to 8.6% (5.8% issued-only) by the SoftBank (Aug-25) and Nvidia (closed Dec-25) raises — the “9.9%” is a 2025 headline. ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩
• No SC 13D/13G was ever filed for the position — 8-Ks and press releases only; unusual for a >5% holder, and the disclosure-side twin of Fortune’s “in no budget document” finding. ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩

Backstory — reconstructed 2026-07-28

Finding: artifacts/findings/intel-rescue-2026-07-28.md · Bundle: artifacts/bundles/intel-rescue-2026-07-28/provenance.yaml

• SoftBank stakes Intel first, $2B — announced 2025-08-18/19 (SPA executed 08-28, closed 09-26), 86,956,522 shares at $23.00/share, widely read as Son personally backing CEO Lip-Bu Tan. (SEC 8-K) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩
• The layoffs and the fab cuts land together — 2025-07-24/25: ~24,000 layoffs announced (target 75,000 “core employees”; Tan: “no more blank checks”), Magdeburg Germany fab cancelled outright, Poland assembly/test site scrapped, and New Albany, Ohio construction “further slowed” — all in the same Q2 2025 earnings-adjacent announcement wave. (Google News RSS) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩
• US government takes a 9.9% stake, $8.9B, with a foundry-contingent warrant — agreement 2025-08-22, closed 08-26: $5.695B in accelerated CHIPS Act funds + $3.175B Secure Enclave funds converted to 433.3M shares. A separate 240.5M-share warrant (strike $20, 5-year term) is exercisable only if Intel’s foundry ownership drops below 51% — a poison pill against a foundry breakup, not a growth-funding mechanism. No board seat; Commerce votes with the Board except narrow carve-outs. (SEC 8-K) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩
• Nvidia invests $5B and signs on to co-design chips — SPA executed 2025-09-15, announced 09-18, closed 12-26: 214,776,632 shares at $23.28/share. Real technical terms, not just equity: Intel builds Nvidia-custom x86 CPUs for Nvidia’s AI infrastructure and x86 SoCs integrating Nvidia RTX GPU chiplets, connected via NVLink. Intel stock +22% same day, best single-day gain in ~38 years. (Nvidia newsroom) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩
• Altera divestment closes, Abu Dhabi’s MGX rides along — Silver Lake’s 51% purchase of Altera (announced 2025-04-14, $4.46B cash, ~$8.75-9B implied valuation) closes 2025-09-15; MGX reported to have contributed ~$3.3B of the purchase alongside Silver Lake (09-16/17). (Google News RSS) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩
• Ohio goes quiet, then “on life support,” then a denied buyout rumor — by 2025-09-05/10 the New Albany site is described as “on life support” three years after groundbreaking, still unfinished, 5+ local leaders gone. Sentiment shifts by mid-2026 as Intel’s stock rallies and the Apple foundry deal raises hopes of an anchor tenant; a 2026-07-21/22 report that SK Hynix was in talks to buy the Ohio campus was denied by SK Hynix the same day, with Intel confirming 07-23 it’s seeking a partner generally. Production timeline has slipped to a reported 2030-2031 range. (Google News RSS) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩
• 18A stabilizes, 14A finds its first customer, Apple and Microsoft sign on — 18A-P enters risk production 2026-06-16/17 (9% perf gain, 40% lower thermal resistance vs base 18A); by 07-07 the node is reported “finally running smoothly.” Foundry customer wins accumulate through the year: Microsoft’s Maia 2 on 18A/18A-P (~Oct 2025), Tesla’s $20B “Terafab” as first named 14A customer (2026-04-22/23), a preliminary Apple chip-making agreement on 18A-P (announced 05-08, Trump confirms 06-18), and Fortinet on Intel 4 (~07-27/28). No named 18A/14A customer rejection surfaced in this crawl. (Google News RSS) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩
• CXMT passes Intel’s market cap — 2026-07-26/27: Chinese DRAM maker ChangXin Memory Technologies debuts on Shanghai’s STAR Market, surges ~465-500%, briefly becomes China’s most valuable A-share company; multiple outlets state this surpassed Intel’s own market cap, which was already under pressure (reported ~$79B lost ahead of earnings 07-17, a further ~$90B “wipeout” 07-24). No exact side-by-side dollar figures found — the crossover is confirmed qualitatively, not numerically. (Google News RSS) ⟨crawl 2026-07-28⟩