2026-10-22 — Meta raises the low end of its 2026 capex range and says it will issue a new non-voting share class

• The Verge reported that Meta expects capital expenditures between $135 billion and $145 billion this year, up from the previous estimate of $130 billion to $145 billion. (The Verge) Claims: kat-claim-73db47fbb2a8
• The Verge reported that Meta said in its third-quarter earnings report that it is issuing a new class of non-voting shares to fund its AI initiatives, potential acquisitions and employee compensation, with trading beginning in 2027. (The Verge) Claims: kat-claim-0cf64a02b792

2026-09-30 — Meta’s AI data centers cut its federal tax bill by classing them as experimental

• Meta cut its 2025 federal tax bill by nearly 71% by treating its AI data centers as experimental facilities eligible for research tax credits, the New York Times reported The credit saved $3.9 billion in 2025, up from $700 million in 2023, and the Times says Meta’s own accountants flagged the approach as legally risky. (Quartz, New York Times)

2026-09-20 — FT: Big Tech has issued up to $300bn of AI guarantees, Meta’s is $28bn on Hyperion

• The Financial Times reported that Big Tech companies have issued up to $300bn of guarantees backing AI data centres and chips in under a year, recording little of it on their balance sheets, including a $28bn Meta guarantee behind its Hyperion venture with Blue Owl. Secondary write-ups of the FT piece say Hyperion raised $27bn with most of the obligation outside Meta’s reported balance sheet, and cite Morgan Stanley’s broader estimate of more than $3.1tn of off-balance-sheet commitments across seven cloud and chip companies. It adds a headline number to the ~$420bn of off-balance-sheet AI obligations already logged here 08-17. (Financial Times, GuruFocus via Yahoo Finance)

2026-09-15 — BofA models $8.5B in 2027 MTIA savings; the next two chip generations get names for the first time

• Bank of America estimates Meta could save roughly $8.5 billion in 2027 by running AI workloads on its own custom MTIA silicon instead of third-party chips — a modeled analyst projection, not company guidance — built on an assumed 5-6GW of owned capacity in 2027 at ~$200B total spend, chips at 60% of that, and custom silicon priced ~40% below third-party equivalents. First time this thread has concrete names/timing for the next two MTIA generations: MTIA 450 (“Arke”) in H1 2027, MTIA 500 (“Astrid”) later in 2027, both co-developed with Broadcom for inference workloads — Broadcom CEO Hock Tan confirmed delivering “three generations of MTIA accelerators to Meta” through end of 2027. Corroborated across Bloomberg, Investing.com, and 24/7 Wall St. (Bloomberg, 24/7 Wall St.)

2026-08-31 — A Texas gubernatorial candidate made Meta’s El Paso data center a campaign issue, calling for an emergency legislative session

• Democratic gubernatorial candidate and state representative Gina Hinojosa, campaigning in El Paso on 2026-08-31, called for “an emergency legislative session just on this issue so that we can hear from community members” on data-center regulation, naming Meta’s Northeast El Paso project directly. She criticized Governor Abbott’s August directives as having “not changed a single thing about Meta or our data centers here,” promised to void any contract that denies residents water they need, and said she’d reshape the Public Utility Commission through new appointments. Context: Meta’s own reported water use for the site (400,000-500,000 gallons/day average, 2.5M gallons/day authorized max) against El Paso Water’s 108M gallons/day total supply. This moves the thread’s long-running El Paso local-pushback watch item into the state’s November 3 gubernatorial race. (El Paso Matters)

2026-07-29 — The capex discrepancy is resolved, against this map’s number

Logged 2026-08-18 by the cold rotation. This thread’s own watch text had flagged the discrepancy for resolution “at earnings Wednesday 07-29.” Earnings happened; nobody read them; the flag sat for three weeks.

• Meta’s Q2 2026 capex was $31.08B and full-year 2026 guidance narrowed to $130–145B, from a prior $125–145B range. Revenue $60.8B (+28%), EPS $6.18 against a $7.17 estimate, shares down 7–10% after hours. The $76B TTM basis this map carried is stale and is retired — the $135B/$145B figures that kept recurring in coverage were the correct ones. (Meta 8-K exhibit 99.1)

2026-08-17 — ~$420B of AI obligations sit outside the balance sheet

• Meta reports $83.7B of on-balance-sheet debt and carries a reported ~$420B of AI-related obligations outside it — future lease commitments including the $27.3B Beignet/Hyperion structure with Blue Owl, chip and equipment purchase obligations, and the $35B CoreWeave commitment. A wider cited analysis puts five hyperscalers (Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Oracle) at a combined ~$1.65 trillion of off-balance-sheet AI debt. EY had already flagged the Beignet structure as a critical audit matter in February 2026 — the structure was known; the aggregate was not.
• This is the sharpest available statement of the thread’s own thesis — capex migrating off the balance sheet — and it reframes the guidance number above: $130–145B is what Meta will report spending, not the size of what it has committed.
• Texas standards, and the El Paso exception: Gov. Abbott announced 2026-08-10 that Meta agreed to comply with new Texas data-centre standards, paying full grid and water infrastructure costs. It explicitly does not resolve El Paso — the City Council was set to send Abbott a formal letter on 2026-08-18 asking whether the statewide standards apply to that project at all.

2026-07-30 — El Paso pushback gains an elected voice

• A Texas state representative is calling for a new review of El Paso’s Meta tax incentives, citing the BlackRock JV announced 07-28 — the local pushback (council ending tax breaks 07-21, the “Block Party” protest 07-25) now has an elected official attached, not just residents. ([KFOX/KVIA/KDBC])

2026-07-29 — Capex raised again, but free cash flow nearly vanished

• Q2 revenue $60.8B (+28%) beat, but EPS $6.18 missed consensus by roughly 14-15%, and free cash flow was $784M — near zero against an ~$12B/quarter trailing average. Total expenses rose 55% YoY on legal costs and severance. Stock fell 8-11% after-hours, -8.5% premarket. (StockTitan)
• 2026 capex guidance was raised again, to $130-145B — the floor up from $125-145B, the second raise this year. Capex is not peaking here; it is still rising. (Benzinga)
• The AMD 6GW commitment was not addressed on the call — checked the transcript directly, no mention found. The only new infrastructure item was a BlackRock partnership for a 1GW Texas data center. (transcript via Investing.com)
• This is the thread’s most important wrinkle so far: a hyperscaler took a hit as hard as the chip names that fell the same night, on capex-outrunning-monetization optics rather than the capex figure itself. The dividing line the market drew tonight looks less like hyperscaler-vs-chipmaker and more like proven-monetization-vs-unproven.

2026-07-28 — El Paso’s financing structure completes, one day before earnings

• Meta and BlackRock formalized a $14B El Paso, TX data-center joint venture — BlackRock-managed funds (with Global Infrastructure Partners and HPS Investment Partners) take an 80% stake, financed partly by the $12.5B bond that just priced; Meta keeps 20%, contributing ~$2.3B of land and in-progress construction. The 1GW campus, already under construction, targets 2028 operations — the same 80/20 off-balance-sheet pattern as Hyperion’s Blue Owl sale, now repeated at a second site the day before earnings. (Meta) (CNBC)

2026-07-23 — Thread opened

• Opened — backfilled with the two 07-22 items below, previously tagged only to entities, no thread.

← Backstory

2026-07-22 — Two supply-hedge signals in one day

• Meta committed to 6GW of AMD Instinct MI450-series capacity — alongside OpenAI’s 6GW and Anthropic’s 2GW, signed the same day as AMD’s Advancing AI event — Meta hedging compute supply beyond Nvidia. (Tech Times)
• Meta reportedly in talks for a $10B Anthropic cloud deal that would make Meta a fourth major cloud provider. ⚠ single-outlet, rumor-sourced — unconfirmed pending Meta’s 07-29 earnings. (Motley Fool)

2026-07-27 — Capex destination reconstructed (backward crawl)

Full crawl finding: artifacts/findings/meta-capex-2026-07-27.md · bundle: artifacts/bundles/meta-capex-2026-07-27/

• BlackRock’s $12.3B El Paso data-center bond hit “soft demand” (07-25) then rallied and upsized to $12.5B (07-27) — yields reportedly topped 7% amid a broader AI-debt sell-off; not a downsize, a wobble. (Business Times — soft demand)
• Meta quit the RE100 clean-energy pledge amid a 7.5GW Louisiana gas buildout — directly cuts against the nuclear/geothermal/solar PPA narrative built over the past year; the freshest, highest-signal item in this crawl. (Electrek)
• Moody’s warned “unprecedented” AI spending threatens the credit quality of Amazon, Meta, Alphabet and others — four business days before Meta’s 07-29 earnings; corroborated by five other outlets same week, but exact rating action/Meta-specific numbers unconfirmed. (CNBC)
• Hyperion (Louisiana) confirmed at 5GW / $50B+ — Reuters, CNBC, and Data Center Dynamics converged same-day; Meta also sold 80% of the project to Blue Owl Capital and is fighting an order to disclose jobs/power figures. (Reuters)
• El Paso capex boosted sixfold to $10B (1GW), while local politics turned against it — City Council ended new data-center tax breaks (07-21) and a resident “Block Party” protest ran the same week (07-25). (CNBC)
• Reuters exclusive: next MTIA chip (“Iris”) enters production September 2026 to double Meta’s compute capacity — well-corroborated secondhand across 4+ outlets, not primary-verified. (Reuters)
• Meta-Broadcom custom-ASIC deal extended through 2029, 1GW+ of custom silicon — announced the same day Broadcom CEO Hock Tan stepped down from Meta’s board. (CNBC)
• Meta’s Nvidia “600K H100-equivalents” figure is stale — superseded by a 1.3M target (2025-01-24) and then “millions… including standalone CPUs” (2026-02-17); no precise current count found. (CNBC)
• Nuclear RFP awards unlock up to 6.6GW — Oklo (1.2GW, Ohio), TerraPower (8 Natrium plants), Vistra (Beaver Valley expansion); the original RFP target is disputed between outlets (1.4GW vs. 4GW). (Meta Store, official)
• Zuckerberg’s “superintelligence” framing has been softening — from “hundreds of billions… now in sight” (2025-07-30) to telling an internal town hall AI agent progress is “more slowly than expected” (2026-07-02), four weeks before earnings. (Business Insider)
• The $14.3B Scale AI stake (~49%) and “TBD Lab” have had a rough year — a fourth AI-org restructuring in six months, ~600 layoffs, chief scientist Yann LeCun’s departure calling LLMs “a dead end,” and sustained “soul-crushing”/“suffocating management” internal coverage through this week; no change to the equity stake itself found. (WSJ — $14.3B deal)
• The “~$76B TTM” capex figure could not be corroborated in this crawl — a dedicated query returned zero results; the numbers that actually recur in 2026 coverage are $135B (Jan guidance) and $145B (Apr-Jul coverage). Verify before repeating it.