The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

AI

Nuclear for AI

The nuclear-for-AI wave — but ~0 net-new MW power any AI datacenter before 2027, and the first firm power is a RESTART (TMI-1), not a new build. The ~13GW announced is <20% of projected demand; every genuinely new SMR/Gen-IV project is 2030s-weighted. Watch which actually clear licensing.

STATUS · OPEN OPENED · 2026-07-24 LAST SEEN · 2026-08-28
Amazon AWS Microsoft Oracle

Summary

The Department of Energy committed $200 million to Oklo and X-Energy on July 25, its first federal dollar into the nuclear-for-AI push.

Which of the announced nuclear projects actually clears licensing, since that is the real bottleneck, not the announcements themselves.

2026-08-28 — PJM dropped Oklo’s Meta-backed Ohio nuclear project from its interconnection queue, and the FERC dispute is still open

2026-07-30 → 08-17 — Three announcements, zero licences

Logged 2026-08-18, twenty-four days late — the coldest thread in the rotation. This thread’s test is which projects clear LICENSING.

2026-08-04 — A named hyperscaler retreats from a nuclear-adjacent site (caught 08-05)

2026-08-03 — A Nvidia-linked nuclear startup raises $1B to go from prototype to production (caught 08-05)

2026-07-27 — The nuclear book across the four

2026-07-25 — First federal dollar

2026-07-24 — Opened + crawled

← Backstory (crawl 2026-07-24 → artifacts/findings/nuclear-for-ai-2026-07-24.md)

2026-06 — The reality check

2026-01 — Meta’s nuclear trifecta

2024-2025 — The wave’s anchors

This week's evidence

🕓 🚫 Nothing new on the buildout in this window — no datacentre site announcement, interconnection filing, PPA, local approval or rejection, capex revision, nuclear agreement or large infrastructure debt raise dated inside it. Everything that surfaced traces to dates already on the map: Anthropic's $45bn Nscale deal (08-26), CoreWeave's ~$104bn backlog (08-11 earnings), the county moratorium votes, and Stargate site reporting from last year. 2026-08-31

Related threads (shared entities)

· Memory Squeeze
· Microsoft's Hedge
· Circular Financing
· Stargate
· Hyperscaler Capex
· AWS Capex
· Microsoft Capex
· Compute Spend
· Power Buildout
· Datacenter Sites
· In-House Silicon
· Grid & Turbines
· Big Tech into Health
· Microsoft Health
· Amazon Health
· Oracle's Stargate Bet
· Dragonfly Return
· Mistral AI
· Targets