The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

AI

Nuclear for AI

The nuclear-for-AI wave — but ~0 net-new MW power any AI datacenter before 2027, and the first firm power is a RESTART (TMI-1), not a new build. The ~13GW announced is <20% of projected demand; every genuinely new SMR/Gen-IV project is 2030s-weighted. Watch which actually clear licensing.

STATUS · OPEN OPENED · 2026-07-24 LAST SEEN · 2026-09-25
Amazon AWS Microsoft Oracle

Summary

The Department of Energy committed $200 million to Oklo and X-Energy on July 25, its first federal dollar into the nuclear-for-AI push.

Which of the announced nuclear projects actually clears licensing, since that is the real bottleneck, not the announcements themselves.

2026-09-25 — NRC and DOE issue the final environmental clearance for the Three Mile Island/Crane restart

2026-09-24 — The NRC proposes a wholesale rewrite of reactor licensing and oversight rules

2026-09-22 — Palisades restart stalls after a fuel assembly tips during loading

2026-09-21 — Google funds 96MW of Georgia nuclear uprates; Kairos gets a $100M Samsung C&T commitment

2026-09-16 — Holtec pulls its $900M IPO, naming data-center backlash as the reason nuclear could not price

Logged 2026-09-20 on the cold rotation, four days after the event.

2026-09-08 — The Energy Department closes a $1.9bn loan restarting NextEra’s Duane Arnold reactor, with the output pre-committed to Google

2026-08-28 — PJM dropped Oklo’s Meta-backed Ohio nuclear project from its interconnection queue, and the FERC dispute is still open

2026-07-30 → 08-17 — Three announcements, zero licences

Logged 2026-08-18, twenty-four days late — the coldest thread in the rotation. This thread’s test is which projects clear LICENSING.

2026-08-04 — A named hyperscaler retreats from a nuclear-adjacent site

2026-08-03 — A Nvidia-linked nuclear startup raises $1B to go from prototype to production

2026-07-27 — The nuclear book across the four

2026-07-25 — First federal dollar

2026-07-24 — Opened + crawled

← Backstory (crawl 2026-07-24 → artifacts/findings/nuclear-for-ai-2026-07-24.md)

2026-06 — The reality check

2026-01 — Meta’s nuclear trifecta

2024-2025 — The wave’s anchors

Related threads (shared entities)

· Memory Squeeze
· Microsoft's Hedge
· Circular Financing
· Stargate
· Hyperscaler Capex
· AWS Capex
· Microsoft Capex
· Compute Spend
· Power Buildout
· Datacenter Sites
· In-House Silicon
· Grid & Turbines
· Oracle's Stargate Bet
· Dragonfly Return
· Mistral AI
· Targets