The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

AI

Stargate

~$500B / ~10 GW joint venture (OpenAI/SoftBank/Oracle/MGX); ~7 GW + >$400B committed over 3 years; SoftBank carrying a $40B OpenAI loan; sovereign co-investment via "OpenAI for Countries" (UAE live 2026; UK/Norway/Argentina/South Korea). Track sites actually energized, financing/grid bottlenecks, sovereign terms, and slippage.

STATUS · DEVELOPING OPENED · 2026-06-28 LAST SEEN · 2026-08-17
OpenAI SoftBank Oracle MGX

Summary

Nvidia is in talks to backstop as much as $500 billion of the Stargate buildout, including a 10-gigawatt Ohio megasite, while markets priced in real risk with a Nvidia selloff.

Whether Stargate's committed sites are actually energized on schedule, against financing and grid bottlenecks, is the open question behind the multi-hundred-billion figures.

2026-09-01 — SB Energy’s OpenAI warrants rose to $5.5bn by end-June, and the anchor-tenant incentive package is now multi-source corroborated

2026-08-17 — The Ohio backstop talks become a signed deal: OpenAI named customer for the full 8 IT-GW

2026-07-27 — Nvidia in talks to backstop up to $500B for a 10GW Ohio megasite

2026-07-22 — A new site: Georgia

2026-07-21 — The financing gets a fee trail

← Backstory

2026-07-01 — Sovereign tranche landed

2026-06-28 — Thread opened

This week's evidence

🕓 🚫 Nothing new on the buildout in this window — no datacentre site announcement, interconnection filing, PPA, local approval or rejection, capex revision, nuclear agreement or large infrastructure debt raise dated inside it. Everything that surfaced traces to dates already on the map: Anthropic's $45bn Nscale deal (08-26), CoreWeave's ~$104bn backlog (08-11 earnings), the county moratorium votes, and Stargate site reporting from last year. 2026-08-31
The same filing's risk factors say the quiet part in SEC prose: SB Energy is "substantially dependent on OpenAI," whose guarantor credit it describes as sub-investment-grade, and 81% of the headline backlog is more than eight years out. OpenAI's PORTS-Pike lease alone is 8.0 of the company's 8.8 GW-IT of signed capacity — about 91% — with the rest split between SoftBank's Cosmos campus and OpenAI's Milam County buildings. OpenAI holds 3,991,809 warrants at a nominal $0.01 strike (ten-year term, reported at roughly $5.5bn in value, up from $3.6bn in January) plus a board designation right above a 5% stake, and separately put $500m of equity into SB Energy and pledged $50m of OpenAI product spend through 2028. Of the $439bn backlog, only about $82bn (19%) is expected to be recognized within eight years — $1bn in 24 months, $12bn in 25-48, $30bn in 49-72, $39bn in 73-96 — with the remaining $357bn "thereafter." SoftBank keeps voting control; SB Energy will list as a Nasdaq "controlled company," with share count and price range still to be filed by amendment. (SEC EDGAR S-1, Yahoo Finance citing WSJ) 2026-09-01

Related threads (shared entities)

· GPT-5.6
· Jalapeño
· OpenAI IPO
· Microsoft's Hedge
· Circular Financing
· Frontier Gatekeeping
· Containment Breach
· Nippon Life v. OpenAI
· Where the Capex Lands
· Compute Spend
· Power Buildout
· Datacenter Sites
· Nvidia's Order Book
· In-House Silicon
· Nuclear for AI
· Camellia
· Big Tech into Health
· OpenAI Health
· Lab IPO Wave
· Nvidia as Lender
· Arm Royalty Regime
· Son All-In
· Oracle's Stargate Bet
· The #2 Cashes In
· Targets
· The Rogue Agent
· AI Psychosis
· The Backlash Prices In