The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

AI BIG PICTURE

Where the Capex Lands

The ~$750B question posed as a DESTINATION, not a spender: where does the aggregate AI capex actually land, on what projects? The taxonomy — chips (Nvidia/AMD/TSMC/Broadcom + custom silicon like Jalapeño), datacenters (Stargate, Camellia, Colossus + the 100s of sites), power (gas turbines, nuclear-for-AI, grid), land/cooling/water. Sibling to hyperscaler-capex-big-picture, which cuts the SAME money by spender; this one follows it to where it physically lands. Most destinations have no thread yet — that's the worklist. ADDENDUM 2026-08-15: the capex-committed-vs-capacity-energized gap now has its first two real outcomes on the record, on opposite sides — AWS's Lusby, MD project withdrew rather than clear Texas- style compliance gates (08-04), while Core Scientific, Vantage, and SB Energy formally committed to Abbott's PUCT/ERCOT standards (08-12). Track which outcome the majority of the project queue lands on, not just whether the gap exists.

Compute SpendPower BuildoutDatacenter Sites
STATUS · OPEN OPENED · 2026-07-24 LAST SEEN · 2026-09-25
Nvidia OpenAI SpaceX Google Meta AI

Summary

This meta-thread reframes AI capex from who's spending to where roughly $750B actually lands, across chips, datacenters, power, and land.

Whether the destination breakdown across chips, datacenters, power, and land shifts as more sites report actual spend is the open question.

2026-09-25 — Akamai’s Anthropic-deal surge fades to a 3% gain at the close

2026-09-24 — A BlackRock-backed group is in talks for Stack’s Asia-Pacific data centers at up to $25 billion

2026-09-10 — Microsoft’s own destination number: 12GW today, 38GW by 2032

2026-09-01 — Reuters puts a hard number on the capex-committed-vs-capacity-energized gap, nationally

2026-08-26 — AWS triples its GPU order; the chip destination gets a number attached

2026-08-25 — An $11.3bn Tennessee campus files, with power attached

2026-08-22 — Alibaba raises $10.2bn in Hong Kong’s largest-ever follow-on, and puts 100% of it into AI

2026-08-17 — A named destination gets a physical shape: Pike County, Ohio, 8 IT-GW, built in phases

2026-08-15 — The gate produces its first compliance case, not just its first casualty

2026-08-04 — The capex-to-capacity gap this thread flagged 08-03 gets its first concrete casualty

2026-08-03 — The destination tree acquires a gatekeeper

2026-07-24 — Opened (meta-thread)

← Backstory

Related threads (shared entities)

· Jalapeño
· OpenAI IPO
· Memory Squeeze
· Microsoft's Hedge
· Apple × Gemini
· Circular Financing
· Stargate
· Hyperscaler Capex
· Google Capex
· Meta Capex
· Colossus
· Grok
· Musk Megacap
· Compute Spend
· Power Buildout
· Datacenter Sites
· Nvidia's Order Book
· In-House Silicon
· Grid & Turbines
· Camellia
· Nvidia as Lender
· Meta Gas Pivot
· CoreWeave Bet
· Oracle's Stargate Bet
· Dragonfly Return
· The #2 Cashes In
· Targets
· DeepMind Succession
· AI Debt Gets Rated
· Anthropic Rents the Buildout