The Projection — a symmetric watercolor butterfly

The Projection

The surface is never the system.

AI BIG PICTURE

Where the Capex Lands

The ~$750B question posed as a DESTINATION, not a spender: where does the aggregate AI capex actually land, on what projects? The taxonomy — chips (Nvidia/AMD/TSMC/Broadcom + custom silicon like Jalapeño), datacenters (Stargate, Camellia, Colossus + the 100s of sites), power (gas turbines, nuclear-for-AI, grid), land/cooling/water. Sibling to hyperscaler-capex-big-picture, which cuts the SAME money by spender; this one follows it to where it physically lands. Most destinations have no thread yet — that's the worklist. ADDENDUM 2026-08-15: the capex-committed-vs-capacity-energized gap now has its first two real outcomes on the record, on opposite sides — AWS's Lusby, MD project withdrew rather than clear Texas- style compliance gates (08-04), while Core Scientific, Vantage, and SB Energy formally committed to Abbott's PUCT/ERCOT standards (08-12). Track which outcome the majority of the project queue lands on, not just whether the gap exists.

Compute SpendPower BuildoutDatacenter Sites
STATUS · OPEN OPENED · 2026-07-24 LAST SEEN · 2026-08-30
Nvidia OpenAI SpaceX Google Meta AI

Summary

This meta-thread reframes AI capex from who's spending to where roughly $750B actually lands, across chips, datacenters, power, and land.

Whether the destination breakdown across chips, datacenters, power, and land shifts as more sites report actual spend is the open question.

2026-09-01 — Reuters puts a hard number on the capex-committed-vs-capacity-energized gap, nationally

2026-08-26 — AWS triples its GPU order; the chip destination gets a number attached

2026-08-25 — An $11.3bn Tennessee campus files, with power attached

2026-08-22 (late catch, added 2026-08-23) — Alibaba raises $10.2bn in Hong Kong’s largest-ever follow-on, and puts 100% of it into AI

2026-08-17 — A named destination gets a physical shape: Pike County, Ohio, 8 IT-GW, built in phases

2026-08-15 — The gate produces its first compliance case, not just its first casualty

2026-08-04 — The capex-to-capacity gap this thread flagged 08-03 gets its first concrete casualty (caught 08-05)

2026-08-03 — The destination tree acquires a gatekeeper (caught 08-04, missed on the day)

2026-07-24 — Opened (meta-thread)

← Backstory

This week's evidence

Reuters put the first hard national number on the gap between capex committed and capacity actually energized: 700GW+ of large-user grid connection requests, roughly ten times current US data-center consumption. Texas's own queue went from ~48GW in 2023 to 474GW+ today; ten major utilities including AEP Ohio, Southern Co. and PPL log roughly 270GW between them. Pennsylvania is the sharpest single data point — of 100+ proposed data centers, only 20 have applied for the permits they need to proceed, after Governor Josh Shapiro's 08-18 executive order tightened permitting for projects 25MW and up, making Pennsylvania a second state gatekeeping the queue rather than taking announcements at face value. Texas PUC chairman Thomas Gleeson: "When you don't know what is real, you really don't know how to build the infrastructure for it." (Reuters via Yahoo Finance) 2026-09-01

Related threads (shared entities)

· GPT-5.6
· Jalapeño
· OpenAI IPO
· Memory Squeeze
· Microsoft's Hedge
· Apple × Gemini
· Circular Financing
· Stargate
· Frontier Gatekeeping
· Containment Breach
· Nippon Life v. OpenAI
· Hyperscaler Capex
· Google Capex
· Meta Capex
· Colossus
· Grok
· Musk Megacap
· Grok Harm
· Compute Spend
· Power Buildout
· Datacenter Sites
· Nvidia's Order Book
· In-House Silicon
· Grid & Turbines
· Camellia
· Big Tech into Health
· Google Health
· OpenAI Health
· Lab IPO Wave
· Nvidia as Lender
· Meta Gas Pivot
· CoreWeave Bet
· Oracle's Stargate Bet
· Dragonfly Return
· The #2 Cashes In
· Targets
· The Rogue Agent
· DeepMind Succession
· CSAM Ads
· Social Media Fight
· AI Psychosis
· AI Debt Gets Rated
· Anthropic Rents the Buildout
· The Backlash Prices In